The Dr. Edward Kambour NFL Football Ratings

2008 Season Ratings

Below are the ratings for NFL football. The first column is the team, followed by the estimated power rating and home-field advantage. To forecast the outcome of a game simply subtract the visiting team's rating from the sum of the home team's rating and the home team's home field advantage. The difference is approximately the forecasted point-spread. Thus, if the result is positive, the home team is predicted to win, while if the result is negative, the visiting team is predicted to win. The teams are ranked by their ratings.

Predictions of this weekend's games can be found here.

Click for an in-depth statistical analysis of the US Presidential election. 

  

                        Rating   HomeAd 
     NY Giants         79.4457   1.4722
     Tennessee         78.1110   2.7488
     Pittsburgh        77.2020   0.5749
     Green Bay         77.1824   3.6680
     Indianapolis      76.3844   0.0369
     Philadelphia      76.3360   1.4258
     New England       76.2307  -2.3207
     Dallas            73.3588   2.3811
     Carolina          73.1907   2.3044
     Chicago           72.6089   0.1004
     Jacksonville      72.3841   0.3689
     San Diego         71.9733   4.8607
     Washington        71.1502  -0.4389
     Miami             70.9056  -3.2498
     Tampa Bay         70.8433  10.0955
     Minnesota         70.5775   4.8310
     NY Jets           70.0829   5.1710
     Baltimore         70.0649   8.6544
     New Orleans       69.7354   2.7803
     Cleveland         69.6798   0.9753
     Arizona           69.6691   8.7407
     Atlanta           69.4653   2.3569
     Cincinnati        66.9463  -0.2292
     Buffalo           66.3594   5.0296
     Houston           65.3722   6.6495
     Denver            64.7248   4.9252
     Seattle           63.6266   4.8323
     San Francisco     63.1663   1.5117
     Oakland           61.4509  -2.8325
     Detroit           60.4855   1.0868
     Kansas City       60.1935   3.1049
     St Louis          54.1027   5.7572


Note: Ratings include games through 11/18/08.

Note: These ratings are the result of a Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Linear Forecaster. The author has a Ph.D. in Statistics from Texas A&M. He specializes in Bayesian Forecasting. The forecasting method has been presented at four technical conferences, the 1997 and 1998 Conferences of Texas Statisticians, as an invited presentation at the 2001 Joint Statistical Meetings , and at a 2003 Houston INFORMS meeting. The powerpoint slides from the INFORMS talk are available here.

Email:edwardkambour@sbcglobal.net

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